Fitch Solutions forecasts that Ghana’s economic growth will rise from 2.9% in 2023 to a three-year high of 5.5% in 2024. Recent data from the Ghana Statistical Service indicates that the economy expanded by a robust 6.9% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, building on a solid 4.8% growth recorded in the first quarter.

The UK-based firm attributes the acceleration in growth during the second quarter to stronger industrial output, primarily driven by the mining and quarrying sectors, along with a continued recovery in construction. In terms of expenditure, the growth in the second quarter was further bolstered by an 8.5% increase in private consumption and a notable 12.6% rise in exports.

Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, Fitch Solutions expects growth to remain strong, although it will decelerate from the high levels recorded in the second quarter. This outlook is based on two key assumptions.

First, the firm suggests that the robust export growth observed in the second quarter is unlikely to be sustained. This surge in exports was partly driven by solid growth in international oil sales, due to a significant recovery in crude production in the first half of 2024. However, this recovery appears to have reached its peak, leading to moderating growth rates in the latter half of the year, which will cap overall export growth.

Second, Fitch notes that private consumption growth is expected to moderate for the remainder of the year. Following a period of stagnation in 2022 due to rapidly rising inflation, consumer activity began to recover in 2023. With private consumption expanding by an impressive 18.7% and 19.2% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, respectively, this creates a high base for comparison, resulting in lower growth rates for the second half of 2024.

Despite these anticipated challenges, Fitch Solutions emphasizes that robust consumer fundamentals indicate healthy spending ahead. Data released by the Bank of Ghana shows a significant 21.1% year-on-year growth in mobile money transactions as of June 2024, alongside a remarkable 42.5% increase in new payment card issuances. This data underscores a positive trend in consumer engagement and financial activity within the economy.