Two UK-based firms, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Fitch Solutions, have forecasted a victory for former President John Mahama in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections in Ghana.

The EIU anticipates a shift in power from the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) to the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC). Factors influencing this potential change include declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and inadequate public services. The EIU noted that while incumbent regimes are expected to prevail in most African elections in 2024, there is an elevated risk of reduced parliamentary majorities and more challenging governing conditions.

Fitch Solutions concurs with this forecast, suggesting that the ruling NPP is unlikely to retain power, with former President Mahama expected to secure victory in swing regions against Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

A detailed analysis by Fitch Solutions indicates that in the five northern regions, the former President is projected to secure nearly 60% of the votes, compared to just above 30% for Vice President Bawumia. In swing regions, including Greater Accra and Central, Mahama is expected to garner about 47% of the votes, while Dr. Bawumia is projected to receive nearly 30%. In the Akan regions, which encompass Ashanti and Eastern, President Mahama is leading with approximately 34%, surpassing Dr. Bawumia’s 33%.

Mike Kruninger, Senior Analyst for Sub-Saharan Africa at Fitch Solutions, emphasized that the opposition NDC is currently in the best position to win the 2024 presidential elections. He cited multiple surveys indicating that the economy would be a crucial factor for voters, putting the ruling NPP at a disadvantage due to the recent economic downturn occurring under its leadership. Kruninger concluded that, based on current trends, the NDC is likely to secure a majority in the December 2024 elections.